Euro Debt Constraining Growth – FT
Ralph Atkins, the FT’s capital markets editor, discusses high private sector debt levels in the eurozone with Moritz Kraemer, S&P’s chief sovereign ratings officer. Mr Kramer says Europe is ‘in for...
View ArticleThe Broken Bond Market
The Fed tightens on Wednesday and bonds rally. What the hay? GaveKal, Jeff Gundlach, and Jim Bianco nailed it in that every spec and their mother are/were short 10-year Treasuries. Source: Quandl...
View ArticleIs the U.S. Government Bankrupt? Not Even Close.
We often hear the meme “the U.S. is the next Greece.” “The government is insolvent.” Complete nonsense. We tend to focus too much on the right side of the government’s balance sheet and not the left...
View ArticleFOMC: A Big Double Cheese Non-Burger
Monetary policy history made today. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) confirmed it would begin its long-awaited quantitative tightening (QT). In October, the Committee will initiate the...
View ArticleStocks And Bonds Now Joined At The Hip
Market Recovery The U.S. stock market rallied Friday on the six bps decline in the 10-year Treasury yield. The S&P500 has now recovered 63.09 percent of its peak-to-low loss. We are looking for...
View ArticlePrepare For Much Higher Long-Term Rates
There has been a huge drain of liquidity from the U.S. Treasury market over the past few years, and may signal a structural change to how the United States finances budget deficits. The government will...
View ArticleWhen The U.S. Government Defaulted
One of the most pervasive myths about the United States is that the federal government has never defaulted on its debts. There’s just one problem: it’s not true, and while few people remember the “gold...
View ArticleGerman 10-year At 47 bps As Inflation Prints 2.3 Percent
Really efficient markets, no? The Germans ECB loves a real 10-year negative carry. This is absurd and tantamount to confiscating the savings of hard working Germans. Only going to add to the...
View ArticleGet Shorty, Got Shorty, Still Shorty In 10-Year Notes
Interesting chart from Bloomberg on the growing record short position by specs in 10-year note futures. Surprisingly, there has been no meaningful squeeze in the 10-year during 2018, even with the...
View ArticleU.S. Treasury Market Borrowing & Global Foreign Savings
We were curious about how much U.S. Treasury market borrowings have increased relative to global foreign savings and whipped together the table below. We define global foreign savings here as the...
View Article
